Rates up 29, a chief executive gone, and credit did not blink
The week had two events that should have moved credit. Neither did.
The first was rates. The ten-year Treasury rose 29 basis points to 5.15%, its highest since October, after Tuesday's inflation report. The two-year swap rate rose 35 and the ten-year 29, leaving the curve almost flat at three basis points. The ten-year rate ten years forward ended near 5.2%, above the level at which this site has watched insurers' hedging respond. That flow did not show: deep-forward swap prints ran below their recent average all week.
The second was Nvidia. Its chief executive resigned on Thursday. The stock fell as much as 14% that day and ended the week about 14% lower on the swap tape. Protection on the company had its heaviest day since September, and closed tighter: 128 basis points on Friday against 141 on Tuesday.
The rest of the chain followed credit, not the headline. Oracle ended at 295 against 305 a week earlier. The investment-grade index tightened three basis points to 58.7. In equities the move was a rotation, not a rout: Broadcom rose 17% on the week and CoreWeave 14%, while Nvidia fell.
Two markets priced the same news differently. Shareholders repriced who runs Nvidia. Lenders saw no change in whether it pays.
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Curve shift
Par swap curve, %
Change on the week by tenor, bp
The par SOFR curve at Friday's close against the prior Friday, and the change by tenor in basis points. Treasury constant-maturity yields alongside where Treasury's series is on file.
Daily paths
10-year: swap and Treasury, %
Credit: CDX IG and HY 5y, spread bp
Swap spread to Treasury, bp
Inflation: 10y CPI breakeven, % · TIPS swapped to fixed 7–12y, %
Where each market closed on each day of the week, prior Friday as the starting point. Yields in percent, spreads in basis points.
Tape activity
Prints per day
Insurer-linked prints per day, by tape
Counts of prints matching the structures on the Insurers page; a match is a shape, not a name.
What printed each day: new USD swaps, forward-starting swaps, index CDS, and the prints on each tape that match a structure life insurers hold in Schedule DB.
Week at a glance
Closes by day and the change from the prior Friday. Dashes mark days a series had no print or no reference.
Earlier weeks
Each review stays at its own address after it leaves the page bar.
About this page · Five sessions of the public tape in one place: how the swap curve, swap spreads, credit indices, breakevens and TIPS moved from Friday close to Friday close, the path they took getting there, and what printed. Every figure is the same derived series the daily pages carry.
Requests
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