Where the option tape puts the 10y

Outright swaptions on the DTCC public tape, to . Straddle legs paired and removed; each bar is notional traded at that strike for that expiry. Payers are protection against higher rates, receivers the right to receive at a lower one. Black line: forward swap rate at each expiry (median over the window).

Underlying Show Height
payers / capsreceivers / floorsforward rate by expiry

Read it as a map of what hedgers were willing to pay for during the move. Short-dated payers sit on top of the forward — tactical protection against the next leg. Out past a year the picture splits: receivers struck 60–135bp below the forward, payers 65–115bp above it, and in the one-to-two-year expiries the receiver side is the larger of the two.